Ten Surprises for 2026

By Brian Broberg | As of January 20th, 2026

Like a sentinel, this is my attempt to keep watch over what we should stay alert to in 2026. Some of these items may not materialize this year, and others take a contrarian angle—not the widely accepted view.

Before we begin, the new year certainly started with a bang.

President Trump wasted no time in removing Venezuela’s illegitimate leader and bringing him into the American justice system. What a surprise. Yet the real surprise wasn’t that he took Nicolás Maduro, but how quickly he did it. The swiftness of the operation sets the tone for the administration’s emerging policy: speed is the watchword. As in prior years, I’ll break these surprises into three categories: geopolitical, economic, and market-oriented.

One more surprise; hopefully a pleasant one: I’ll be brief. My goal is a page and a half. I’ll make my points with short explanations. For each of these, I believe there is at least a 51% chance of it occurring. Here we go.

Geopolitical

Surprise #1: There will be no negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine in 2026. Russia is not a traditional nation-state. It has always been an imperial power, its goals remain imperialist, and Europe is not ready to confront. For these reasons, it will not settle.

Surprise #2: The Ayatollahs in Iran will not relinquish power. Their regime is deeply entrenched and well-practiced in suppressing uprisings, and always brutally. That will continue, unless the demonstrators stop, or the US intervenes militarily. Even if force is applied, the regime’s bench is deep. It will not topple, unless US troops on the ground make it so. Not likely.

Surprise #3: The major political factions in England (Labour and the Conservatives) are so concerned about Reform UK’s rising success elsewhere that they will delay the elections scheduled for May. Imagine delaying an election in America. It is unthinkable.

Surprise #4: The Trump “non-interventionist” foreign policy, which is interventionist by its very nature, will be executed so quickly that opponents will look both ways and still not understand what happened. Policy will continue in this vein: shoot first, “answer” questions later.

Surprise #5: Cuba may be the next domino to fall. They already struggle to keep the lights on and public water flowing. What happens when Venezuelan oil shipments, which power their electric grid, slow or stop? The Castro regime will face a literal and political blackout.

Surprise #6: The Supreme Court will strike down the Administration’s tariff regime. The White House will then attempt an end-run around the Court’s decision.

Economics

Surprise #7: The Federal Reserve may cut rates once more, but not until spring. The bond market is concerned about US debt levels. So, this implies the 10-year U.S. Treasury will trade between 4.20% and 4.75% this year. The lower end of the range would allow 30-year fixed mortgage rates to fall below 6.00%. If they move to the higher end, then mortgages will stay above 6.00%. The only relief in rates may come from Surprise #8.

Surprise #8: According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model, the current estimate for Q4 2025 GDP is 5.4% growth. This is rocket-ship territory. With inflation declining, jobs steady, and productivity rising, average GDP growth for 2026 could exceed 5.5%, perhaps hitting 6% by the end of the year. Aside from the post‑pandemic reopening in 2021, we haven’t seen numbers like that in more than twenty years. Wunderbar.

Markets

Surprise #9: Oil has been declining since its March 2022 high of $130 per barrel. Today it sits around $60. With current production levels, plus new Venezuelan production, we could see $50 oil, with an outside chance of $45. Affordability returns.

Surprise #10: The S&P 500 had a strong 2025, closing at 6,845. Corrections will come, but GDP growth and rising corporate profitability should carry the day. At year end, I expect the S&P to close between 7,500 and 7,850. If foreign affairs cool down, then we could see 8,000 to 8,200.

That’s my Ten Surprises. We’ve reached the end—
or so you thought.

Bonus Surprise

Greenland will not become part of the United States in any way. Its citizens have already said Naamik (which means “No” in Greenlandic). For a people intent on pursuing their own sovereignty, trading one sovereign for another is unthinkable. Just as Russia clings to empire, Iran to regime, and Cuba to survival, Greenland clings to independence. Sovereignty is not a bargaining chip. It is the heartbeat of nations.

Let’s see what unfolds. In the meantime, feel free to reach out with comments or questions at brian@broberginvestmentgroup.com .

Wishing you a great year.
(Surprise! I kept it to a page and a half, even with the bonus.)